Bitunix Analyst: PCE Brings No Surprises, the Real Variables Remain the Federal Reserve and the US Dollar
BlockBeats reported that on June 26, the US May PCE data matched market expectations, with overall PCE rising 4.1% year-on-year and core PCE up 3.4% year-on-year. Although the data did not further boost inflation expectations, it also did not provide any reason to support rate cuts. As a result, the market's focus quickly shifted from the data itself to the Federal Reserve's policy framework. Especially after Waller continually downplayed forward guidance, capital has remained focused on the possibility of "higher rates for longer" instead of waiting for a policy pivot.
The latest statements from Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced this expectation. Williams admitted that the timeline for inflation to return to 2% could be delayed until 2028. Goolsbee also believes that core inflation remains high and supports avoiding providing a clear interest rate path. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues its strength, all major US banks have passed stress tests, and the AI industry keeps attracting capital inflows. All these factors make global funds more inclined to stay in dollar assets rather than bet early on an easing cycle.
On the other hand, risks in the Middle East have not been fully resolved. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has once again taken a tough stance on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on commercial ships and disputes over management rights of the strait indicate that the ceasefire agreement still faces repeated uncertainties. Although crude oil exports and shipping have not yet been materially impacted, the market has started to reassess uncertainties in the energy supply chain and their potential effects on future inflation.
For the crypto market, what really needs attention now is no longer just single inflation data, but whether US dollar liquidity will continue to be absorbed by the high interest rate environment. As the market gradually accepts that the Federal Reserve will not rush to loosen policy in the short term, the speed of valuation recovery for risk assets may still be limited. In the short term, Bitcoin will likely continue fluctuating around funding risk appetite, US dollar strength, and overall liquidity changes. The market should still pay attention to how changes in macro policy expectations impact the sentiment in the crypto asset market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Updated Version 3 - According to the Financial Times, McKesson and CD&R are close to reaching a deal worth more than $5 billion to acquire Option Care.
In the fifth paragraph, a quote from analyst Sahil Pandey was added. Reuters, October 5 - According to the Financial Times, citing informed sources, pharmaceutical distributor McKesson (MCK.N) and private equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice are about to reach an acquisition agreement to purchase infusion service provider Option Care Health, with the deal valued (including debt) at over 5 billions USD. After the report was published, Option Care's share price rose by 21% in after-hours trading. The report stated that the deal could be announced as early as Tuesday, but negotiations could still fall through. This potential acquisition would be McKesson’s latest move in expanding its healthcare services portfolio. In August this year, the company agreed to acquire Precision Medicine Group for about 2.25 billions USD (link), as part of its effort over the years to strengthen high-growth business sectors. Leerink Partners analyst Michael Cherny said the “strategic logic” of the deal makes sense, as it would expand McKesson’s business from physician offices to care settings in the home and alternative sites. Option Care provides infusion services that allow patients to receive intravenous treatments at home or other outpatient settings, eliminating the need to go to the hospital. McKesson has previously been restructuring its business portfolio by divesting non-core assets and investing in fields such as oncology and specialty care (link). Driven by the growth of its specialty distribution business and contributions from acquisitions, revenue for its oncology and multi-specialty business segment grew by 33% in the latest fiscal quarter. McKesson declined to comment, while CD&R and Option Care did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment regarding the report. (For non-English speakers' convenience, Reuters offers automated machine translations of its reports in several languages. As there may be mistakes in the automated translations or some context may not be included, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of the automated translation text, which is provided solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters bears no responsibility for any damages or losses caused by the use of automated translation functions.)
Centalion acquires Hainesville natural gas assets from Silver Hill
Reuters, October 5 - Centalion Group announced on Monday that it has acquired upstream and midstream natural gas assets in the Haynesville region of Texas and Louisiana from Texas-based private shale company Silver Hill Energy Partners. The commodities trader, formerly known as Gunvor, rebranded as Centalion Group last week (link), and stated plans to relocate its corporate headquarters from Cyprus to Singapore. A spokesperson for Centalion Group said the Haynesville platform, composed of Post Oak and Silver Hill assets, has an enterprise value of approximately $2 billion. In August, Reuters cited sources stating that Centalion Group (link) was negotiating the acquisition of Silver Hill's assets, with a deal valued between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion. The assets currently produce about 300 million cubic feet per day of natural gas (MMcfd), and the portfolio includes approximately 72,000 net acres in the Haynesville and Bossier development areas. "Our consideration was to establish operations in this basin, a hub for both domestic and export markets, in order to seize this option and create value from it," the spokesperson added. (To assist non-English speakers, Reuters offers automated translation of its reports into several other languages. Due to possible errors in automated translations or missing required context, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts, and provides them solely for readers' convenience. Reuters is not liable for any damages or losses resulting from the use of the automated translation feature.)
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