Super Data Week Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls Moved Up to Thursday, US-Iran Conflict Escalates Again, Month-End Rebalancing Amplifies Volatility Risk

BlockBeats News, June 28. This week, the global market will face a highly complex situation with multiple overlapping factors: Super Data Week, early release of non-farm payroll data, end-of-month/end-of-quarter/end-of-year institutional rebalancing, and escalating US-Iran conflict, which may lead to a significant surge in market volatility.

On the geopolitical front, despite the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the tense situation has not eased. On Saturday, the US military launched a second round of airstrikes against Iranian targets in response to Iran's downing of a Panamanian-flagged oil tanker "Kiku," which was carrying over 2 million barrels of crude oil. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard then launched missile and drone attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, warning that any violation of the agreement would trigger a "destructive response." The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated again, putting pressure on oil prices that had previously fallen to around $72. Deutsche Bank has warned that the market is too optimistic about supply recovery, as the inventory levels at the Kharg oil terminal are below the level needed for system stability.

On the data front, due to the US market closure on July 4 for Independence Day, this month's non-farm payroll report will be released early on Thursday, July 2. The market expects an addition of 130,000 jobs in June. This week's data calendar is packed, including Tuesday's JOLTS job openings, Wednesday's ADP employment and ISM Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's initial CPI for June, and a series of data releases that will impact the market alternately. In addition, the May PCE, released last week, rose to 4.1% year-on-year, reaching a near three-year high, further solidifying expectations of a Fed rate hike later this year.

In terms of asset performance, the S&P 500 index has risen by over 7% in the first half of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged by 85% from its March low, but the NASDAQ fell by over 4% this week. Gold failed to hold above $1800 under strong US data and inflation pressure, but a Kitco survey shows that both institutions and retail investors are mostly bearish. JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7200 to 7800 this week, but many institutions advise investors to remain cautious as we enter the second half of the year and wait for buying opportunities created by the volatility.