Analysis: The MVRV curve suggests a weak BTC rebound is near, with a low probability of testing the $50,000 level
BlockBeats news, on June 28, crypto analyst Murphy used the “post-halving MVRV overlap curve” framework for analysis, stating that current cycle volatility is severely compressed—highs are not high enough, and lows are not low enough. The current BTC price channel corresponds to an MVRV of approximately 1.12 to 1.30, which converts to a BTC price range of about $59,000 to $70,000. Murphy believes that in the short term, BTC is already near the lower boundary of the channel, around $59,000, and before July 23 is likely to show a weak rebound or fluctuate at current prices, with a low probability of falling to $50,000; if there is a rebound, the height is expected not to exceed the range corresponding to MVRV 1.30, which is $69,000 to $70,000.
From a medium-term perspective, Murphy believes that the true bottoming withdrawal is most likely to occur after July 23 or August 23, in line with the traditional four-year cycle timing, and that September to October may be an even more important window for price changes. On the price front, Murphy clearly indicated that Bitcoin under $60,000 is cheap. Overall, the short-term tone is not pessimistic but there is also no rush to aggressively buy the dip, and the current situation is more like a range-bound fluctuation with weak rebound. The period that truly warrants caution is from the end of July to after August.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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