Brent Oil: Conflict risks ease but remain – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank Research’s Jim Reid and team highlight that Brent Oil fell sharply last week as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased, easing inflation concerns and rate-hike fears. However, they note Brent is modestly higher today, with Iran-related tensions still fragile despite a tentative de-escalation agreement between the US and Iran ahead of talks in Doha.
Hormuz tensions and inflation implications
"Tensions in the Iran conflict have continued to escalate since Friday, with a series of tit-for-tat strikes around the Strait of Hormuz despite a fragile ceasefire framework. The latest flare-up began with attacks on commercial shipping, prompting successive US strikes on Iranian-linked targets, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-linked sites in the Gulf, including bases in Bahrain and Kuwait."
"Over the weekend, the conflict intensified further with additional strikes on vessels and military targets, leading to heightened maritime security risks and the Joint Maritime Information Center raising the threat level in the Strait to “substantial.” However, overnight developments suggest a tentative de-escalation, with the US and Iran reportedly agreeing to halt further attacks ahead of renewed technical talks in Doha this week."
"Both sides are said to be standing down for now, allowing shipping flows to continue, although disputes over key provisions of the memorandum of understanding—particularly around control and potential costs for transit through Hormuz—mean the situation remains fragile and risks to regional stability persist."
"The equity sell-off came despite Brent crude prices (-10.65%, -4.34% on Friday) falling back to below their pre-war levels at $71.99/bbl, as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to ramp up."
"The oil price decline has eased fears about an inflation shock and aggressive rate hikes."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Metals fade as long yields offset cooler inflation, lower Fed odds - Kitco PM Report
Bitwise brings NEAR to Wall Street – But the chart isn’t impressed
Synopsys and OpenAI reach AI chip design partnership, stock price surges over 7%
Synopsys has signed a multi-year legally binding agreement with OpenAI to jointly develop GPT-Synopsys, a model specifically trained and fine-tuned for chip design tasks. OpenAI will pay Synopsys a subscription fee for tool licensing, and both parties will share revenue based on improvements in chip design achieved by customers using the product.
How does Wall Street view the PCE? Goldman Sachs delays expectation for Fed rate hike
After the lower-than-expected US August PCE data was released, Goldman Sachs delayed its expectation for the Federal Reserve's second rate hike from October to December, and stated that it does not rule out the possibility that the Fed may eventually decide no further hikes are necessary. "New Fed Newsletter" Timiraos noted that the PCE does not change the previously known trend of rising inflation. Currently, the market prices in a 39% probability of a rate hike in October, down from 45% before the PCE release; and a 90% probability in December. The yield on 2-year US Treasury notes dipped slightly after the PCE announcement and then rebounded, while the 10-year yield continued to rise.
Crypto prices
More
