Prediction markets get the Hollywood treatment as Scott Stuber wins bidding war for Kalshi and Polymarket book

Prediction markets have officially crossed over from crypto-Twitter curiosity to Hollywood IP. Writer Zoë Bernard sold a book project centered on Kalshi and Polymarket to Scott Stuber, the former head of Netflix Films, in what’s being described as a competitive bidding war. The book hasn’t even been published yet.

Stuber, who now produces for Amazon MGM Studios, apparently saw enough narrative gold in the prediction market saga to fight for the rights.

The platforms behind the pitch

Kalshi operates as a regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It received CFTC approval for event contracts, meaning it plays by traditional financial rules.

Polymarket, on the other hand, lives in the crypto ecosystem. It uses blockchain-based infrastructure and order-book mechanics to let users trade on outcomes.

The numbers tell the story of just how quickly this space has exploded. Polymarket recorded $7.1 billion in trading volume in May 2026, down from a peak of $10.5 billion in March 2026. Its US platform alone contributed an additional $1.77 billion during May.

Bernard’s Vanity Fair feature, published on February 11, 2026, profiled the CEOs of both platforms and explored the broader cultural and financial implications of prediction markets. That article apparently caught Stuber’s eye, and the rest is, well, a developing Hollywood deal.

The bigger picture for prediction markets

In 2025, the two platforms entered a licensing agreement with the NHL to promote prediction markets around hockey.

The financial terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. But the fact that it was a competitive bidding situation signals that multiple producers or studios saw value in the project.