Analysis: The target range for the current bitcoin weak rebound is $64,000 to $68,000, with $70,000 as the short-term rebound ceiling in the bear market.

BlockBeats news, July 4, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of Bitcoin short-term holders (positions held for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs repeated attempts to break through in order for the cost trend line to gradually converge, but each breakthrough attempt triggers some shaky holders to sell as their unrealized losses turn into gains. This "breakthrough—resistance—pullback—breakthrough again" cycle is the necessary process to form a consensus bottom.

Based on this, the analyst divides the current rebound expectations into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic, while $70,000 is the location of the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), which is often viewed as the ceiling for bear market rebounds. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the emotional bull-bear dividing line, and every trend reversal starts with the last breakthrough of this line.

The analyst personally leans towards this round being a "weak rebound," expecting a rise to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. If it unexpectedly breaks through $70,000, it would be defined as a strong rebound, at which point they would consider partially taking profits on existing positions to allow for room for further adjustments. Option market data simultaneously shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma position around $62,000, and hedging behavior as the price approaches will suppress volatility. After the breakthrough, the next positive Gamma region is precisely between $66,000 and $68,000, also forming a resistance area.