The discount on Middle Eastern benchmark crude widens as a surge in spot supply puts pressure, and the OPEC+ production increase adds more uncertainty.

⑴ On Monday, Middle Eastern benchmark crude Oman, Dubai, and Murban spot discounts generally widened, with sustained supply pressure becoming the main suppressing factor. The cash Dubai premium over swaps fell by $0.19 to $3.70 per barrel, fully revealing weakness in the spot market. ⑵ Gulf oil-producing countries have recently accelerated their deliveries. Since June, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has conducted its fifth spot tender, with the latest batch selling about 16 million barrels of Murban crude at an even wider discount. The cumulative spot tender sales have exceeded 70 million barrels, directly reflecting the flood of spot supply impacting the pricing system. ⑶ OPEC+ confirmed on Sunday that it will further increase production targets starting in August. This coincides with the gradual recovery of crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a double blow on the supply side and further worsening already pressured oil prices. Market concerns over a short-term supply-demand imbalance continue to rise. ⑷ On the spot trading side, traders such as Trafigura and Mercuria are intensively delivering September-loading Oman crude to Trafigura, with transaction prices fixed at $64.10 per barrel. Cash Dubai closed at $64.10 per barrel on the previous day, compared to $63.80 the day before. The pressured pattern in nearby contracts shows no sign of improvement. ⑸ Last week, Indian refineries purchased about 7 million barrels of crude oil via tenders, including 5 million barrels of combined Angola and Nigeria cargoes acquired by Indian Oil Corporation, and 2 million barrels of Brazil Tupi crude bought by Stanlow Oil, with delivery windows concentrated in late August to early September, showing that Asian demand continues to steadily absorb supply. ⑹ Currently, front-month Brent prices are now lower than six-month forward contracts, with the term structure flattening further or even deepening into contango. This reflects that after the recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the excess supply pressure in the spot market is being fully released through the price curve, with overall market sentiment remaining bearish. ⑺ On Monday, Korean prosecutors accused four domestic refiners and employees of two companies of conspiring to manipulate fuel prices, claiming $17 billion in damages. On the same day, Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry officials revealed that strategic crude oil inventories fell in June by an amount equivalent to four days of consumption. Geopolitical and regulatory disturbances add extra uncertainty to the short-term trend.