Have U.S. tech stocks adjusted enough?

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华尔街见闻2026/07/06 14:57

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By:华尔街见闻

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1. Previously, we reported that the maximum drawdown of the Nasdaq during the tech rally and the current AI rally averaged around 10% (In previous technology rallies, how long and how deep were the corrections?). However, given the current divergence between hardware and software, we further analyzed the maximum drawdown patterns of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and momentum factors, which better represent the current AI rally.

2. Since June 22, the drawdown magnitude for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and momentum factors is broadly in line with historical norms. During both the 1995-2000 tech rally and since the AI rally began in December 2022, the median maximum drawdown for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Morgan Stanley Momentum Factor, Morgan Stanley TMT Momentum Factor, and Goldman Sachs Momentum Factors is generally around 15%. The correction since June 22 is also broadly consistent with this historical pattern.

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3. The valuation of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen back to early April levels; the 2026/2027 PEG is at a historical low, and the current valuation has not yet priced in long-term earnings growth. As of the latest data, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's TTM and Forward PE are 43.9x and 22.7x, basically returning to the level seen right after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in early April, standing only at the 48.3% and 16.9% percentiles since the start of the current AI rally. In addition, the 2026/2027 PEGs for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index are 0.6/0.4, also at historical lows, indicating that the current valuation has not yet priced in long-term earnings growth.

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4. This week’s AI rally leader—South Korea—is expecting two major catalyst events. First, Samsung Electronics will release its earnings preview on the 7th. Due to one-off bonuses and squeezed profit margins from mobile business, operating profit may slightly miss optimistic forecasts, but memory-related business is highly likely to exceed expectations (FactSet consensus: DRAM/NAND YoY revenue growth of 424%/302%). Second, Hynix will list on the US stock market on the 10th. Referring to TSMC’s US listing in October 1997, even when the overall US tech environment was weak, TSMC’s ADR/Taiwan shares rose by over 10% within five trading days.

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The concerns sparked by Meta’s AI compute capacity sale last week did not impact the underlying fundamentals. First, the H100/H200 rental price index has continued to rise over the past two weeks. Second, earnings per share expectations for the 25 key AI companies we track have continued being revised upwards. Third, the market’s capex forecasts for major North American cloud providers have not slowed recently; Meta’s 2027 capex has been slightly downgraded, but Google and Amazon’s projections have been further revised upwards.

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Source: Industrial Securities Strategy Team led by Zhang Qiyao

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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