UBS: Market Vulnerability Nears Extreme Levels, Earnings Season May Trigger a Temporary Spike in the VIX

格隆汇2026/07/13 01:57

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Glonghui, July 13 – According to the Turbu-lens market fragility indicator compiled by the UBS derivatives strategy team, the current reading is 0.9 (the scale ranges from -1 to +1), the highest level since mid-September 2025. Historically, when the indicator reaches a similar level, it often signals that the VIX fear index is about to surge sharply in the near term. The team, led by strategist Maxwell Grinacoff, warned that this indicator currently shows the market is in an extremely fragile state, just as earnings season is kicking off. The team further pointed out that if systematic trading strategies substantially increase leveraged positions, the indicator reading may truly hit the maximum level of 1.

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Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that the Federal Reserve should completely separate market-functionality bond purchases from monetary policy operations, record them independently, and commit to selling them as soon as possible in order to dispel market concerns over the Fed potentially suppressing long-term yields. She emphasized that a full understanding of the Fed’s decision-making logic by the market itself has a stabilizing effect.

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