British Pound: Gilt confidence and new leadership – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that United Kingdom (UK) assets, including the British Pound (GBP) and gilts, will react more to the choice of chancellor under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham than to the leadership change itself. Yu stresses that markets are focused on fiscal sustainability, with real gilt yields attracting domestic demand but limited foreign interest.

Fiscal path key for gilts and Pound

"Andy Burnham will likely be confirmed as the U.K.’s seventh prime minister in 10 years in the coming days, and he would take office the week of July 20."

"For GBP and gilt markets, the identity of the next chancellor is far more significant, as they’re looking at binary outcomes with respect to a significant deviation from the November budget or the broad status quo."

"The political challenges involved mean that “early” doesn’t mean major changes until the next general election – a new mandate for adjustment is required first."

"For gilt investors, we do not expect a major change in current flow dynamics: real rates are attracting strong domestic buying, but international interest is nonexistent."