Indonesia: Post-S&P optimism faces weak risk uptake – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that S&P Global Ratings has retained Indonesia’s sovereign rating and stable outlook, citing fiscal discipline and expectations of rationalized flagship spending and improved revenues. However, she highlights that optimism for local assets is tempered by renewed West Asia tensions, higher US yields, a weaker Rupiah near USD/IDR 18000, and a sharply flatter IDR yield curve, limiting prospects for a sustained rally.

S&P support meets external headwinds

"S&P Global Ratings retained Indonesia’s sovereign rating and stable outlook, diverging from their cautious peers. The agency highlighted that the country had a record of fiscal discipline under various governments, which underpinned the positive credit profile, besides drawing comfort from assurances that the -3% of GDP deficit target will be respected."

"The positive view was also anchored on the likelihood that spending towards flagship schemes, especially the free meals program, will be rationalized, while expecting the centralized export agency to boost revenue."

"Demonstration of a credible commitment to fiscal discipline through a clear medium-term consolidation strategy, stronger revenue mobilization, and prudent expenditure management will be timely."

"Equally important will be transparent communication around fiscal priorities, funding plans, and contingent liabilities, helping to reduce policy uncertainty and reinforce confidence in the government's commitment to debt sustainability.A reduction in the downgrade risk was a tailwind for the local asset markets."

"USD/IDR was back above 18000, nearing new lows for the rupiah, attracting intervention risks. Compared to pre-West Asia conflict levels, IDR 2Y yield (generic) has adjusted up nearly 200bp, much larger extent than the long-end, following rate hikes and official preference to provide attractive differentials, in essence flattening the curve. Until exogenous stressors subside, a meaningful rally in local markets will prove to be short-lived."