Data: Bitcoin is being driven by leverage rather than spot demand, while value and momentum buyers remain on the sidelines

ChainCatcher reports, according to a NYDIG research report, Bitcoin fell by 13.4% in the second quarter of 2026, expanding its year-to-date decline to 32.9%. During the same period, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 27.7% and technology stocks surged by 43.5%. This indicates that the current downturn is not caused by macro risk avoidance, but by Bitcoin's unique supply pressure.

The core pressure comes from Strategy (MSTR) launching a “digital credit capital framework,” authorizing the sale of approximately $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to cover capital structure obligations. This marks the shift of the largest historical marginal buyer from continued accumulation to active realization, and the entire DAT complex has shifted from a demand engine to a supply risk engine. In terms of ETFs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $4.9 billion in the second quarter, but Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust attracted $364.8 million in inflows against the trend, demonstrating that distribution channels remain competitive.

In the derivatives market, amid weak spot demand and continued outflows from ETFs and stablecoins, positive funding rates combined with rising open interest indicate leveraged long positions are being rebuilt, placing risk of passive liquidation that could lead to a new round of declines. Bitcoin has now cumulatively declined by 54.3% from the historical high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025, which is comparable to the roughly 70% downturns seen in the 2018 and 2022 cycles (which are gradually narrowing).