The memory market may enter a long-term cycle of supply-demand tension, Citrini predicts a global DRAM gap of 28.7EB by 2030

Golden Dragon汇, July 16 — According to the latest forecast from market research firm Citrini Research, the global DRAM market will continue to face a large-scale supply shortage by 2030, with the gap expected to reach 28.7EB, accounting for about 18% of total annual demand, compared to this year's global total capacity of approximately 40EB. Data shared by Citrini analyst Zephyr indicates that global DRAM (including HBM) demand in 2030 is predicted to reach 157.5EB, while supply capacity will be only about 128.8EB. Ordinary DRAM is expected to be the biggest bottleneck, with estimated annual supply at 91EB but demand as high as 120EB, causing the deficit ratio to expand from the current 18% to approximately 25%.

The report emphasizes that even if Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers continue to increase production capacity, newly added capacity may still be rapidly absorbed by soaring AI demand. The core reason for the supply-demand imbalance lies in the explosive growth of AI infrastructure, as large model training and inference and HBM become central to AI accelerators, further driving demand for traditional server DRAM. Under this tight balance, DRAM average selling prices (ASP) may remain elevated for a prolonged period, estimated at $1.5–2 per Gb, placing continued cost pressure on server, PC, and consumer electronics memory.