US Dollar: Retail sales slowdown view – TD Securities

TD Securities’ macro team expects June US Retail Sales to stagnate at 0.0% month-on-month, versus the consensus 0.2%. They see weakness led by the control group, negative gasoline sales from falling prices, and a drop in food services, partly offset by strong auto sales. This points to softer consumer spending, with implications for the US Dollar.

June data seen broadly softer

"June retail sales likely moderated substantially to 0.0% m/m (cons: 0.2%). Slower sales in the month will likely be led by a more subdued control group at 0.2% (cons: 0.5%), negative gasoline sales due to falling prices, and a decline in food services (-0.8%). Auto sales will likely show significant strength at 3.0% m/m, offsetting broader weakness in spending."

"The downside surprise in headline June PPI, showing a 0.3% decline (cons: 0.0%), was due to negative food and energy."

"After PPI, we revised up our core PCE estimate for June to 0.19% m/m from 0.14% after CPI."

"Overall though, the report, combined with yesterday's CPI, is still reflective of subdued inflation for the month."

"The Fed should feel comfortable keeping rates on hold in July."