Mitsubishi UFJ Bank: Thai Baht Faces Multiple Negative Factors and May Weaken Further Against the US Dollar

智通财经2026/07/16 16:31

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(1) Lloyd Chan, Senior Foreign Exchange Analyst at MUFG Bank, pointed out that Thailand's relatively low carry yields remain a persistent headwind, and the recent rebound in oil prices may worsen Thailand's terms of trade. (2) The renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East increases growth risks, which could prompt the Bank of Thailand to maintain an accommodative policy to support the economy, putting further pressure on the baht. (3) The bank's valuation indicators show that the baht remains moderately overvalued; USD/THB is currently at 33.58, having reached 33.67 on Wednesday, the highest intraday level since April 2025.

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