BTC Market Pulse: Week 29
Overview
Bitcoin extended its recovery from the recent sell-off, reclaiming ground after establishing fresh local lows. While price momentum has shifted into bullish territory, spot trading volume has contracted by 21.5% and spot cumulative volume delta has turned negative, suggesting the advance has been driven by relatively thin liquidity rather than broad-based buying conviction.
Derivatives markets present a similarly mixed picture. Perpetual futures traders continue to pay a premium for long exposure, reflecting constructive sentiment, yet aggressive buy-side volume has cooled materially. At the same time, options markets remain defensively positioned, with the 25-delta skew approaching its upper statistical range, signalling that investors continue to accumulate downside protection despite the recent rally.
Institutional positioning offers a more constructive signal. Following a period of sustained outflows, US Spot ETFs have returned to net inflows, pointing to a gradual recovery in strategic capital allocation. However, the moderation in ETF trading volumes suggests this demand remains measured rather than speculative, reinforcing the view that recent strength has not yet been accompanied by broad market participation.
On-chain activity remains subdued. Active addresses and fee generation continue to trend lower, highlighting weak organic network demand despite higher prices. Meanwhile, rising hot capital share suggests short-term, price-sensitive capital is becoming more active, a dynamic that has historically preceded periods of elevated volatility.
The holder base nevertheless remains resilient. The low ratio of short-term to long-term holder supply indicates ownership is still concentrated among conviction-driven investors. Profitability has improved, with both unrealised and realised gains rising, although persistent realised losses suggest many participants continue using strength to de-risk rather than add exposure.
Overall, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation regime. Improving institutional inflows, resilient holder positioning, and recovering profitability provide a constructive backdrop. However, subdued spot participation, weak on-chain activity, and continued demand for downside protection suggest the market has yet to transition into a broad, conviction-led advance.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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