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United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Loses traction near 23.6% Fibo., near 100.85

United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Loses traction near 23.6% Fibo., near 100.85

FXStreetFXStreet2026/07/17 08:12
By:FXStreet

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts some sellers following an uptick on Friday, stalling its recovery from a nearly one-month trough, around the 100.35 region touched earlier this week. The index, however, lacks bearish conviction and currently trades near the 100.100.65 zone, down just over 0.05% for the day.

Traders scaled back their expectations for an immediate US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in reaction to this week's soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. This, in turn, keeps the DXY below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June rally. However, investors remain worried about concerns about energy-driven inflation amid escalating US-Iran tensions, which seems to have revived expectations for at least one rate hike by the Fed in 2026 and helps limit losses for the US Dollar (USD).

From a technical perspective, the DXY earlier this week showed some resilience below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 100.55 area. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 44 hints at fragile momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits marginally above zero, suggesting a tentative attempt to stabilize after recent losses. A convincing break below, however, would expose deeper Fibonacci cushions at 100.22, 99.72, 99.23, and 98.52, which together delineate a layered demand zone.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 100.83, where a sustained break would open the way for additional gains beyond the 101.00 mark, towards 101.80, or the year-to-date high touched on June 24.

DXY 4-hour chart

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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