After years of lagging behind Bitcoin, altcoins may finally be approaching a turning point. Several market indicators are beginning to align, with Ethereum sitting at the center of the discussion. Analysts say the next major move in the ETH/BTC chart, along with improving macro conditions, could determine whether altcoin season finally see a broader recovery.
Here are four scenarios that could shape the next altcoin season.
Scenario 1: Ethereum Finally Breaks Out Against Bitcoin
Ethereum (ETH) has been underperforming Bitcoin since December 2021, but that trend is now approaching a critical level.
According to one market analyst:
- ETH/BTC is testing long-term resistance around 0.028.
- Ethereum bottomed against Bitcoin in April 2025, nearly 15 months ago.
- A similar pattern appeared in 2019 before Ethereum broke higher in early 2021 and triggered the last major altcoin rally.
Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Ethereum has posted its first meaningful move against Bitcoin in over a year. He expects a short consolidation before another leg higher, although a strong Bitcoin rally could temporarily delay altcoin outperformance.
Scenario 2: Softer Inflation Keeps Risk Assets Moving
The latest U.S. CPI report added another positive signal for crypto markets.
Recent data showed:
- Core inflation posted its biggest decline in more than four years.
- Expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike dropped sharply.
- Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold and silver all rallied following the inflation report.
Lower inflation improves the chances of easier monetary policy, creating a more supportive environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Scenario 3: Liquidity Starts Supporting Crypto Again
Another factor the analyst noted is the global liquidity.
- Japan’s M2 money supply has historically led Bitcoin moves by roughly 84 days.
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing resistance, which could support additional liquidity if the dollar weakens.
- Improving liquidity has often coincided with stronger crypto performance in previous cycles.
If those trends continue, the second half of 2026 could provide a stronger backdrop for digital assets.
Scenario 4: Altcoins Begin Catching Up
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 660% from its 2022 lows, while Ethereum has only recently started reclaiming lost ground. That gap has left most altcoins well behind.
The analyst also points to improving internal market data.
- Altcoins vs Bitcoin have recovered roughly 23% since December.
- On the top, altcoins outside the top 10 bottomed in February and have rebounded around 17%.
- Meanwhile, the “Others vs Bitcoin” chart is beginning to resemble Ethereum’s breakout pattern.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin may still lead the market higher first, but Ethereum’s breakout against Bitcoin could ultimately determine whether crypto finally enters a full-fledged altcoin season rather than another Bitcoin-only rally.
