Geopolitical risks soar but gold prices remain steady—Is this a signal of accumulation by major players?
Huitong Finance, July 17—— Gold prices did not fall on bearish news, is this suggesting a short-term opportunity and will risk appetite soon undergo a correction?
On Friday (July 17)
This morning
Recently, the geopolitical contest for dominance over the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran has continued to heat up. Both sides have launched a series of military strikes, completely breaking the previously reached temporary ceasefire, leading the Middle East into ongoing turbulence.
To pressure Iran into loosening its control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the US has continued to expand the scale of air strikes against Iran. In the early hours of Friday, it escalated with precision attacks on multiple transport bridges in southern Iran and destroyed the core control tower at Chabahar port in the Gulf of Oman, specifically targeting Iran’s key shipping and land infrastructure.
US Airstrikes Apply Precision Pressure; Iran’s Inland Transport System Severely Damaged
According to Iranian state television, the latest airstrikes have killed at least seven people, with casualties still increasing. US Central Command confirmed that dozens of targets were struck in this wave, marking the sixth consecutive night of US aerial assaults on Iran, and that pressure continues to intensify.
Iran Launches Proportional Retaliation; Multiple Middle Eastern Nations Hit by Missile Strikes
After its infrastructure was struck by the US military,
On Friday,
Meanwhile, the Jordanian military successfully intercepted three incoming Iranian missiles. Explosions from air defense interceptions were heard in several locations across Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region, placing major strain on regional air defense systems.
US Military Fully Blocks Iranian Crude Oil Exports, Shipping Data Plunges
Maritime shipping tensions are also intensifying. On the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, there was a tanker attack incident—a transiting crude oil vessel sustained minor hull damage following the attack but, fortunately, there were no crew casualties.
Although Iran has recently continued to target tankers passing through the strait, it has not claimed responsibility for this particular attack.
Beyond this, the US military has reinstituted a full-scale maritime blockade of Iranian ports, strictly intercepting civilian merchant ships, forcing vessels breaching the blockade to turn back, disabling their equipment, or conducting onboard inspections, thereby completely sealing off Iran's crude oil export channels.
On the 17th local time, the UK Maritime Trade Operations office stated that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile about 19 nautical miles east of Hisab off the Omani coast.
The vessel sustained minor damage to its port side but the crew remained safe, and the ship continued toward its destination; the attack caused no environmental damage.
The escalating geopolitical conflict has already significantly impacted shipping and trade through the Strait of Hormuz and, in turn, is deeply unsettling the global crude oil market.
Although some Middle Eastern energy exporters are attempting to switch to pipeline transport, the capacity gap is huge and cannot offset the drastic collapse in seaborne trade volumes through the Strait.
Summary & Technical Analysis:
The renewed US-Iran conflict, combined with the sharp sell-off in global equities and tightening market risk appetite, has placed significant pressure on gold prices.
Today’s global asset performance aligns with sentiment lows previously highlighted for readers. Gold prices strengthening ahead of time reflects that some capital is betting the situation won't deteriorate further, choosing to enter long positions early. Traders now need to closely monitor gold price trends and developments in the global situation—if the US-Iran conflict continues to worsen and global equities deepen their rout, there is further downside risk for gold.
Technically, spot gold prices remain far from the upper boundary of the descending channel and also distant from the downtrend resistance line, suggesting gold’s rally is only intraday and the overall trend remains weak and bearish.
(Spot Gold Daily Chart, Source: Yihuijtong)
As of 16:19 Beijing time (UTC+8), spot gold is quoted at $3991/ounce.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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