Japanese Yen struggles as higher Oil prices and a wide US-Japan rate gap weigh

USD/JPY trades flat on Friday, holding near four-decade highs as the Japanese Yen struggles to attract buyers amid persistent headwinds, including higher Oil prices, Japan’s wide interest-rate gap with other major economies and a resilient US Dollar (USD).

The Yen found brief support after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi echoed Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's call to encourage greater investment in Japanese financial assets by households and pension funds.

Analysts at BBH noted that Japan is one of the world’s largest net creditors, with net foreign assets totalling roughly $3.6 trillion in the first quarter, equivalent to about 83% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As a result, even modest portfolio repatriation could generate meaningful demand for the Japanese Yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

Meanwhile, attention stays on escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed Oil prices higher and reignited inflation concerns. Rising energy costs also weigh on the Yen by increasing Japan's energy import bill.

Higher Oil prices keep hawkish Fed expectations intact, helping the US Dollar regain its footing after softer-than-expected US inflation data released earlier this week prompted traders to scale back bets on a near-term interest rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in around a 73% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by December.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades flat around 100.75 after hitting a more than three-week low of 100.35 on Wednesday.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday, “Inflation is too high,” while noting that the labour market is around her estimate of maximum employment. Hammack added that the Fed’s nowcast shows core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation at 3.3% after incorporating this week’s data.