XRP Trades Near $1.09 as Bearish Channel Pressures Support

XRP News

XRP is trading around $1.08 and remains under sustained selling pressure, keeping the risk of a sub-$1 breakdown firmly in play. Our reading of the daily chart shows the third-largest altcoin locked inside a well-defined descending channel after an extended decline, still changing hands below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Both averages are sloping lower, reinforcing the prevailing negative momentum. While XRP has drifted sideways rather than extending losses, the broader structure continues to favour sellers, and no recovery attempt has yet reclaimed the falling 100-day average that has repeatedly capped every bounce. For traders tracking XRP, the market posture stays defensive.

Since the sharp June breakdown, XRP has carved out a consolidation range between the $1 support zone and the $1.25 resistance area. Buyers have defended the lower boundary on repeated tests, but each rally has been rejected before reclaiming the declining 100-day moving average or clearing the channel’s upper edge, underscoring how limited bullish momentum remains. A decisive close above $1.25 would be the first signal that buyers are regaining control, exposing the descending channel’s ceiling as the next obstacle. Until that happens, our base case leans bearish: a loss of the $1 handle would open the door toward significantly lower demand zones and confirm the risk of a prolonged bear market phase for the token.

The relative picture against Bitcoin is weaker still. The XRP/BTC pair has spent nearly a year trapped inside a long-term descending channel, consistently trading beneath its 100-day and 200-day moving averages and highlighting sustained underperformance versus Bitcoin. After several failed rebounds in May and June, the pair broke below horizontal support near 1,720 satoshis, a level that had repeatedly attracted buyers before each bounce printed another lower high. On the upside, the first meaningful resistance sits near 1,850 satoshis, where prior support has flipped into resistance, while the 200-day average around 2,000 satoshis marks the primary barrier to any broader trend reversal.

Derivatives positioning tells a quieter story. On-chain and exchange data show XRP’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance has fallen to 0.16, one of its lowest readings since November 2024. The estimated leverage ratio, which measures how much outstanding perpetual and futures open interest is stacked against an exchange’s coin holdings, signals a heavily de-risked market when it prints this low. A reading of 0.16 indicates that speculative leveraged positioning has been largely flushed out, leaving fewer over-extended longs and shorts exposed to a violent squeeze in either direction as spot trading dominates order flow across the venue.

Analysts flag a historical parallel worth noting. During 2024, when XRP was changing hands near $0.40, the same leverage ratio compressed to roughly 0.05 before an extended de-leveraging phase gave way to a powerful advance. In the move that followed, the token rallied around 8.9 times, a gain exceeding 790%, and the leverage ratio itself climbed back up as fresh positioning returned. The current compression to 0.16 echoes that setup, though past performance offers no guarantee of a repeat; the metric reflects derivatives positioning cleanliness, not the direction of spot demand, which remains the decisive variable.

Momentum indicators keep the near-term outlook balanced but cautious. On the dollar chart, the relative strength index has been hovering close to the neutral 50 region, reflecting an uneasy equilibrium between buyers and sellers after weeks of heavy selling. Without a decisive bullish breakout, the oscillator does not yet argue for a meaningful trend shift. On the XRP/BTC pair the reading sits below the midpoint, confirming that momentum still favours sellers there. Unlike its 2018 all-time high era, XRP now trades as a maturing, deep-liquidity asset, so any reversal likely requires a structural break rather than a single sentiment spike.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $1.0969 resistance at 73/100, the strongest overhead barrier, driven by the confluence of the BB Middle band, the SMA 20 and the Ichimoku Kijun line, with $1.2071 close behind at 72/100 on the volume Point of Control and Fibo 0.382. Immediate support at $1.0755 scores 62/100 (Fibo 0.114, Swing Low, a former resistance flip). Derivatives read constructively yet crowded: a positive 0.0016% funding rate, $669M open interest and a 3.35 long/short ratio show 77% of accounts positioned long. With the Fear & Greed Index at 27 (Fear) and RSI at 44.46, our bullish thesis needs a reclaim of $1.0969; a break below $1.0755 invalidates it and targets $1.03.