Overview of Major Overnight Developments on July 18

The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, making bonds more attractive relative to stocks than at any point in the past 25 years. The earnings yield of stocks, as measured by the inverse of the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio, is now lower than the 10-year US Treasury yield, resulting in a clear yield suppression effect on the stock market from bonds. According to the Shiller model, the S&P 500 may outperform bonds by only about 1% annually over the next decade. The 20-year paradigm of stocks outperforming bonds has officially come to an end.

Analysts state that the rapid growth in copper demand driven by power infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) provides a new rationale for investors to allocate to the mining sector. Australian mining stocks are expected to continue their upward trend.