Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesStocksEarnInstitutionAI & More
Prediction market traders are bearish on the likelihood of the Clarity Bill passing by 2026

Prediction market traders are bearish on the likelihood of the Clarity Bill passing by 2026

金色财经金色财经2026/07/19 22:44
Show original
Jinse Finance reported that on July 20, according to Bitcoin.com, sentiment on crypto prediction market Polymarket regarding a bet that the "CLARITY Act" will be enacted in 2026 has turned fully bearish, with the probability of the bill passing this year dropping to a historic low. Earlier this year, the market's peak expectation for the bill reached 82%. However, as negotiations stalled on multiple fronts, this probability has continued to decline sharply. The main obstacles to the bill's progress are threefold: first, prolonged deadlock over ethics provisions, with both parties unable to reach consensus on clauses addressing conflicts of interest related to crypto assets for politicians and the president; second, bank lobbying groups opposing interest-bearing stablecoin clauses, with traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan continuously applying pressure to block the bill; and third, a packed Congressional schedule and upcoming midterm elections, which significantly shrink the window for the bill’s review and voting. Although leading industry companies generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulation bill, traders believe these major disagreements are unlikely to be resolved in the short term and that the bill is unlikely to complete the full legislative process and come into effect within 2026. Current market betting data reflects the industry's pessimistic expectations for the pace of U.S. crypto compliance legislation, with regulatory uncertainty continuing to weigh on overall market sentiment in the medium to long term.
0
0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.
Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.
Trade now!

You may also like

More than 20 billions spent this year! Eli Lilly (LLY.US) CEO: We will target “white spaces” in pharmaceuticals and continue to pursue larger-scale mergers and acquisitions.

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks stated that investors can expect the company to pursue larger-scale deals, as it is extensively searching for assets in the "white spaces" of the scientific field.

智通财经•2026/09/29 01:11

Is the “AI bank run” coming? Apollo warns: AI assistants may drain banks' cheap deposits, which will pose risks to the financial system

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, stated that if consumers begin to heavily rely on AI assistants such as Muse under Meta and transfer cash to higher-yielding accounts, it could pose risks to the financial system.

智通财经•2026/09/29 00:26