USD/CAD Price Forecast: Softens below 1.4100, but bullish outlook stays intact above key support
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.4075 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
Oil prices spiked after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key export route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned that Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment.”
It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be in the spotlight later on Friday. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses in the near term.
Technical Analysis:
In the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps the bullish vibe, with the price holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the pair slips back under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, signaling a loss of immediate topside traction after the recent spike. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 47.9 sits just below the midline, hinting at directionless momentum in the near term as neither bulls nor bears currently dominate.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.4130, ahead of a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.4262. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at approximately 1.4000 offers the first line of support, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3875 reinforcing a deeper demand zone if selling pressure extends.
Us trade comments ease concern over Canada tariffs
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight a more constructive tone from US officials on the latest tariff measures, noting that US Trade Representative Greer “offered some hope that the latest tariff blast from Washington would not undermine US/Canada trade relations in the long run and that talks could make progress towards a broader agreement before year-end.” This, they suggest, helps temper market anxiety around the bilateral trade outlook even as currency markets continue to track the broader US Dollar trend.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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