Why does memory stick prices change every day? | QbitAI Institute

Price increases in storage are no longer just ordinary cyclical fluctuations. In Q3 2025, DRAM contract prices rose by 171.8% year-on-year, surpassing the performance of gold during the same period. Looking at the capacity layouts of the three major original manufacturers: HBM and high-end server DRAM are prioritized for supply to data centers, while consumer-grade PC and mobile markets can only endure slower, more expensive, and less stable supply. You can focus on three core conclusions: First, the root cause of the price increase is not a "shortage," but a structural capacity shift driven by AI. The three major manufacturers are shifting 70-80% of advanced process capacity to HBM and data centers. HBM consumes 3-4 times the wafer area per GB compared to standard DRAM, which means for the same wafer, AI chips take up two-thirds of the consumer-grade capacity. Second, the transmission of price increases is uneven. PC memory is the first to feel the pain from channel prices; server memory is mostly locked in by cloud providers and AI companies through contracts, while the mobile end often absorbs the price increase through specification adjustments, complete device pricing, and longer replacement cycles. Third, real relief may not come until around 2028. Multiple institutions believe that storage prices will remain high in 2026-2027, and only after new capacity comes online, HBM’s share slows down, and inventories normalize, will prices possibly show a more significant drop. So, if you have plans to build or upgrade your PC soon, the "wait-and-see" approach may not bring you lower prices this time. For those focusing on technology investments, the structural opportunities in the storage supply chain are worth long-term attention.