Trump Says US and Iran Engaging in Diplomatic Talks to End Conflict, Warns of Resuming Military Action if Negotiations Fail

According to Zhihui Finance APP, U.S. President Trump stated on Monday that the United States and Iran are engaging in diplomatic contacts to end the conflict in the Middle East, but also warned that if negotiations fail to reach an agreement, both sides will return to military confrontation.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran is willing to engage because the U.S. previously took strong military action against it. He said it is "very likely" that both sides will make progress, but if diplomatic efforts fail, the U.S. will resume previous operations.

Trump's latest remarks suggest that the risk of a further short-term escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict has somewhat eased. Previously, Trump had repeatedly threatened to launch a "large-scale" military strike against Iran. However, during several weeks of conflict, Trump also stated multiple times that negotiations were making progress and that an agreement was imminent, yet hostilities continued to escalate afterward. Currently, there is still significant uncertainty regarding whether substantive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have begun.

Previously, the U.S. had suspended new military strikes against Iran for the third consecutive day, and Iran also paused attacks on Kuwait and other Gulf countries. After the temporary ceasefire agreement signed last month broke down due to issues in the Strait of Hormuz, clashes reignited.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said on Monday that mediators may still be conveying messages from the United States, but formal negotiations between the two countries have not yet started. Meanwhile, sources revealed that Oman and Iran are holding consultations on the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, hoping to reopen this vital international energy transport corridor.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense.

On Monday, Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed to have launched a drone attack on Saudi oil facilities but did not specify the exact time. Saudi officials stated that several drones coming from Iraq, targeting oil facilities, were intercepted that day.

Media reports indicate that the U.S. military is cautious about further escalating the conflict.

It has been reported that U.S. Central Command senior officer Brad Cooper, who is in charge of Middle East affairs, advised suspending air strikes against Iran, believing that the effectiveness of such military actions is reaching its limits. There are also reports that several military advisors have suggested the White House avoid further escalation, partly because the U.S. is seeing its high-end interceptor missile stockpiles dwindle.

Trump, for his part, stated that the U.S. still has ample ammunition reserves but admitted he hopes to have more advanced weaponry, especially high-end interceptor systems like the Patriot missiles. He attributed some stockpile strain to the Biden administration’s continued provision of military aid to Ukraine.

The Iranian military stated that because the U.S. had suspended military strikes, Iran had stopped retaliatory actions against U.S. military bases and troops in the Middle East. In the past two weeks, Iran had launched almost daily attacks on U.S. allies in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Due to expectations of an easing situation, international oil prices fell significantly on Monday. The New York Mercantile Exchange's September light crude oil futures dropped $6.70 to settle at $82.61 per barrel, down 7.5%; September Brent crude oil futures in London fell $8.42 to close at $88.36 per barrel, a decrease of 8.7%. U.S. Treasury yields also dropped simultaneously.

In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is expected to visit Washington on Tuesday for talks with Trump. Netanyahu stated that he will urge the United States to continue closely monitoring Iran's nuclear program.

On the other hand, Iran stated that there have been no changes to its Strait of Hormuz transit policies, meaning that relevant commercial ships still need Iranian permission to transit. Currently, shipping activity in this important route, which carries about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas, remains low, and the U.S. blockade measures against Iranian ports are still in place.

At the same time, Iranian and Omani officials held a new round of talks over the weekend on resuming shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran, the discussions were constructive and made some progress, but no details were disclosed and consultations are set to continue.