Has the gold price trend already been "revealed"? Short-term market volatility intensifies, with multiple negative factors causing wide fluctuations

　　Source: China Business Journal

　　Recently, the international gold price has repeatedly been tested around the $4,000/oz mark. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations rising, a series of "hawkish" signals released by multiple overseas central banks, higher US Treasury yields, and the confluence of several negative geopolitical risks, gold prices have been under pressure.

　　

　　

　　Recently, the international gold price saw a brief upward trend but failed to stabilize above the key level. According to Wind data, from July 17, the international gold price (using the London spot gold price as an example) began to rise, going from the $4,000/oz level to above $4,100/oz within four trading days, and closed at $4,131.09/oz on July 22. Afterwards, the international gold price plunged again,

　　“

,” said Liu Siyuan, Chief Analyst at LeadFinance. In addition to the Fed, the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank all sent "hawkish" signals,

　　Fuyi Fu, a special researcher at Suzhao Bank, pointed out that international gold prices have repeatedly hovered near $4,100/oz recently,

. Meanwhile, international geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, further elevating US inflation concerns and making it harder for Fed rate hike expectations to recede. Although gold is considered a safe-haven asset, . In addition, profit-taking and technical corrections after previous surges, as well as continuous fund outflows from gold ETF, are also reasons why gold lacks upward momentum. With intertwined bullish and bearish factors, gold has been locked in a volatile range.

　　Liu Siyuan expects that under the scenario of a single, as-expected Fed rate hike and stable markets,

　　

　　

　　Looking back at major overseas markets over the past week, US economic performance in the third quarter has exceeded expectations, though the structure is differentiated. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged as expected, but ECB officials have said they are ready for a rate hike in September. Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once surpassed 4.70% and has now reached resistance levels. The mainstream market view now is that

　　Analysts believe that,

. Medium-to-long-term factors such as fiscal deficits, geopolitical tensions, and monetary concerns continue to support gold demand. With currency oversupply and fiscal deficit monetization, the US dollar's credit system is being challenged; coupled with frequent global geopolitical turmoil driving diversification of asset reserves, demand for gold as a safe asset continues to increase, and the global "de-dollarization" trend may position gold as a new pricing anchor.

　　"Institutions generally believe the international gold price has strong support near $4,000/oz. Under the base scenario, if there are no major changes in the macro environment, such as the Fed likely only raising rates once this year and inflation gradually peaking and falling back, then gold is expected to fluctuate and consolidate around the current level," Fu Yifu believes,

. All in all, there is limited downside for gold prices, with global central bank gold purchases and physical demand supporting the bottom. Prior to a clear shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, gold prices may see a "capped upside, supported downside" volatile recovery trend.

　　Against the backdrop of fluctuating gold prices, institutional views are also adjusting. For example, JPMorgan had predicted in February that gold would rise to $6,300/oz by the end of the year. However, in its July report, it stated that the average gold price for the second half of the year would be $4,400/oz, but if the Federal Reserve raises rates, it could dip to $3,500/oz; it could rebound next year, and the structural bull market remains intact. (Wang Yifei)

　　Sourced from China Business Journal, Securities Daily, and National Business Daily

Editor: Zhu Henan