Ethereum's 43-day staking queue isn't a clean demand signal, Sygnum says

The Ethereum validator entry queue has swelled to roughly 2.5 million ETH, with new stakers waiting approximately 43 days to activate while the exit queue remained largely empty, according to data from Beaconcha.in.

Thomas Brunner, Head of Custody and Staking at Sygnum Bank, said the backlog is not the clean bullish signal it appears to be on the surface.

"The queue is genuinely long, and part of that is real demand we've observed with spot ETF and at our own level," Brunner said in a written interview with The Block. "But a meaningful share of this staking backlog is mechanical, not directional and it stems from last year's Pectra upgrade."

The Dencun upgrade lowered the daily validator entry rate to roughly 57,600 ETH, Brunner said, and Pectra did not raise it. Pectra also allows validators to hold up to 2,048 ETH each and compound automatically, so large operators are now topping up existing validators. Every top-up, some as small as 1 ETH, waits in the same queue as fresh stakers.

"This backlog reflects operators rearranging and compounding stake they already hold, not just new appetite for ETH," Brunner said.

The largely empty exit queue, by contrast, offers an unambiguous signal.

"Almost no one is un-staking, which points to genuine conviction," he said. "The entry queue measures as much plumbing as demand."

Ethereum's (ETH) staking base has continued to grow alongside the queue. About 41.2 million ETH, or 33.8% of the circulating supply, is currently staked, according to Beaconcha.in.

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Institutional conviction 

Brunner said institutions are not deterred by softer ETH prices.

Ether was trading at above $1,800 on Friday, down 1.7% on the day, according to The Block's ETH price page. Separately, TD Cowen on Thursday lowered its year-end 2026 ether price forecast to $2,371 from about $3,650, citing slower-than-expected progress toward a U.S. regulatory framework for tokenized financial assets while maintaining its long-term Ethereum thesis.

"A lot of institutions now see the staking yield as native to the asset and the utility case as still intact," he said. "When the longer economic and technical story holds up, temporary soft prices matter less. Capital keeps moving in because the horizon is measured in years, not quarters."

He added that long-term holders have little reason not to stake: "It will protect you against any protocol inflation during low activity phases and provide you with a good yield through transaction fees and MEV when activity picks up and ETH becomes deflationary due to the burn."

Privacy remains a barrier 

Brunner identified validator privacy as a key remaining barrier to institutional participation.

"On Ethereum everything is visible by design," he said. "Deposit address, validator, withdrawal credential, all linked in a straight line that anyone with basic analytics can follow. That means an institution's size, timing, even rough strategy is sitting out in the open. For a lot of professional money that is not some abstract risk. It is enough to make them hesitate on scaling."

He said the EIP-8222 lean staking proposal could help address that by closing the final validator-to-withdrawal link. The proposal, however, also comes with tradeoffs, including fixed denominations that can hurt capital efficiency and variable claim waiting periods that complicate institutional operations.

“The players who win will be the ones who can take the new privacy layer and still satisfy their own auditors and control requirements,” Brunner noted. “Privacy helps entry. It does not erase the need for serious infrastructure underneath.”