After posting a 7.36% ROI in July, Bitcoin [BTC] appears to be on track for a bullish August.
Backing this view, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to hover in the “Fear” zone, a level that has historically marked strong accumulation opportunities. But the broader market is telling a different story. Instead of a clean bullish breakout, Bitcoin has started August caught in a classic FUD vs. FOMO battle, with FUD currently gaining the upper hand despite BTC continuing to hold key support.
As the chart below shows, the USD/JPY pair is on track to close the week down more than 3%, dropping from 164 to 157 after Japan reportedly spent $52.8 billion defending the yen. The move was further fueled by the U.S. Treasury selling euros to buy yen, marking America’s first yen intervention since 1998. According to AMBCrypto, this macro shift could be setting the tone for Bitcoin’s August ROI.
Notably, the effects are already showing up across markets. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Taken together, the falling USD/JPY pair and rising Treasury yields point to tightening liquidity conditions.
The logic is simple: Investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy risk assets are now unwinding those trades as the yen strengthens, while higher Treasury yields are pulling capital into safer investments. That leaves less money flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin, increasing the chances of downside pressure.
Against this backdrop, the market’s bearish call for BTC in August doesn’t look like a fluke. In fact, Kalshi traders are now betting on BTC breaking below $59k. With the yen carry trade unwind likely just the first wave of broader macro FUD, that downside scenario is starting to look a lot more credible.
Bitcoin’s bull trap fears grow as macro pressure intensifies
From another angle, a weaker U.S. dollar has historically been a tailwind for risk assets.
The logic is simple: a softer dollar encourages investors to move capital into risk assets like crypto. But this time, rising Treasury yields are changing the equation. As bond yields climb, investors can earn higher returns from lower-risk assets. Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting, adding to expectations that financial conditions could tighten further.
With that in mind, it’s easy to see why many traders are starting to view Bitcoin’s hold above $60k as a potential bull trap. As the analyst below noted, BTC’s “final flush” toward $48k may be getting closer. Add in weakening technicals and mounting macro FUD, and the case for a deeper correction is becoming increasingly hard to dismiss.
That naturally puts Bitcoin’s August rally under increasing pressure.
With macro FUD building, rate hike expectations climbing, Treasury yields pushing to multi-year highs, and technicals losing momentum, Bitcoin’s $60k support is looking increasingly vulnerable. Unless those headwinds ease, a bearish August ROI is becoming a more realistic outcome.
Final Summary
