Polish Zloty: Near-term EUR/PLN forecast raised to 4.30 – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose raises the near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30, citing recent global risk-off moves and uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock. The bank leaves its end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and its end-2027 forecast unchanged at 4.40, while expecting EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027.

Higher near-term euro-zloty levels

"In the near term, the zloty faces additional downside pressure from elevated global risk aversion toward emerging markets and the uncertainty surrounding the oil price shock."

"We are revising up our near-term EUR/PLN forecast from 4.20 to 4.30 in order to re-calibrate with recent risk-off moves in world markets which have impacted many EM currencies, in particular high-beta ones."

"We continue to assume that the geopolitical situation will de-escalate, which will allow the euro and eastern European currencies to stabilise, and PLN can recover from current risk-driven weakness."

"This recovery could be helped by the timing of monetary policy: NBP may remain on hold while oil prices and risk premia begin to fall, which will create a ‘sweet spot’ before rate cut expectations return. In the medium-term, the zloty faces more headwinds because of the political risks and stay on a mild depreciating path."

"We leave our end-2026 forecast unchanged at 4.25 and forecast EUR/PLN to rise steadily through 2027."

"We leave our end-2027 EUR/PLN forecast unchanged at 4.40."