Goldman Sachs: Europe Faces Double Supply Risks of Diesel and Natural Gas This Winter; TTF December May Rise to 100 Euros

(1) Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, stated that Europe is facing dual risks regarding the supply of diesel and natural gas ahead of winter. (2) The European benchmark natural gas futures TTF fell 7% this week to around 54 euros per megawatt-hour, but Dart maintains her forecast of 60 euros for the remainder of the third quarter; European gas inventories are currently about 57.87%, which is roughly 18 percentage points lower than the 2009–2025 average level. (3) Liquefied natural gas imports in Northwest Europe in July fell short of expectations, resulting in end-of-month inventories of only about 43%, increasing winter restocking pressure. (4) Dart predicts that if Middle East energy exports recover slowly, European TTF natural gas prices may rise to above 100 euros per megawatt-hour this December, higher than the previous baseline forecast of 50 euros per megawatt-hour; if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes smoothly, prices may fall to around 40 euros, which is 20 euros below the prior forecast.