US natural gas futures rebound from lows as high inventories and recovering exports compete fiercely

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智通财经2026/08/07 14:06

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US natural gas futures recorded a gain of nearly 2% on Friday, mainly boosted by liquefied natural gas export flows rebounding to a four-week high, with intraday trading near $2.68.
Although the day ended higher, the front-month contract is still highly likely to register its seventh consecutive weekly decline, with a cumulative drop of about 17%. If realized, this would be the longest weekly losing streak since February 2023.
The forward curve signals ample supply, with the 12-month average futures price falling to around $3.09, hitting a new low since November last year. This indicates the market is not concerned about the future supply-demand balance.
In the US mainland 48 states, average daily production remains at a high level of about 11.1 billion cubic feet, matching the record set in July. Combined with mild spring weather this year, inventories have remained above the five-year average since March.
Although continued hot summer weather is boosting demand for air conditioning and gas-fired power generation remains robust, persistently high production on the supply side and temporary constraints in export capacity have made inventory drawdown slower than usual.
On the export side, recent production fluctuations at some Texas facilities caused overall export flows in August to be slightly below July levels, but as a major export terminal's single-day flow climbed to a record high, total daily industry exports are expected to reach about 1.8 billion cubic feet.
Global gas prices remain significantly higher than those in the US, with European and Asian benchmark prices around $19 and $21 respectively. However, the large international price spread is not yet sufficient to quickly reverse the supply glut in the US market.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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US natural gas futures rebound from lows as high inventories and recovering exports compete fiercely

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