A look at Bitcoin’s [BTC] spot flows from exchanges revealed that BTC worth $211.24 million moved into exchanges over the past week. On top of these inflows, analysis of the circulating supply in profit showed the market regime was between bottom discovery and liquidity accumulation.
The market sentiment has been predominantly pessimistic in 2026. The Fear and Greed Index readings have ranged between 28 and 40, while Bitcoin has seen high short-term volatility since March.
The $65K bottleneck has presented a considerable challenge to Bitcoin bulls lately. Additionally, capital inflows and fresh liquidity have been scarce. According to AMBCrypto, here are two reasons why further drawdown may be possible.
Whale activity and elevated CDD sound a warning
The 7-day moving average of the Coin Days Destroyed metric spiked to highs not seen throughout 2026. It appeared to signal panic, like the February sell-off. And yet, it is likely that the Coldcard hack contributed significantly to the CDD.
Moreover, it could also have prompted unaffected long-term holders to move their tokens for safety reasons.
Though notable, the CDD spike must be read within the aforementioned context.
In the 2022 bear market, the exchange whale ratio (both the 30DMA and 7DMA) had been on a steady decline. This metric tracks the proportion of the top 10 largest inflow transactions relative to total exchange inflows.
An uptick in whale ratio implies whales account for a greater share of inflows. It is a bearish signal as large holder inflows can see sizeable selling pressure.
In the previous bear market of 2022-23, the exchange whale ratio was in decline. Inflow activity was more broadly distributed among smaller Bitcoin holders and whales were relatively inactive.
The exchange whale ratio remains elevated in 2026. A gradual drop-off in whale inflow activity would likely offer more constructive conditions for a market recovery.
Rising Open Interest could give way to another price nuke
As Bitcoin retraced its losses in April and May, heartened speculative traders chose to re-enter the market in hopes of a recovery. Their hopes were wiped out after the June reset.
Fresh capital flows have not been strong enough to sustain a recovery. The pessimistic market sentiment reflected the doubt and fear still prevalent in crypto.
Rising OI without commensurate spot demand could lead to a squeeze scenario for BTC’s price action.
Final Summary
- Coin Days Destroyed saw a sizeable spike over the last few days, but the Coldcard exploit might explain this.
- High exchange whale ratios and the slow rise in Open Interest indicated the potential for another sell-off.
