WTI Oil Price Forecast: Weak trend strength keeps WTI below 100-day SMA

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) holds firm on Tuesday after jumping almost 3% the previous day. The lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz keeps a geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.

At the time of writing, the US Oil benchmark trades around $84.47 per barrel, hovering near its highest level in over two weeks.

US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Tuesday that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” adding that the US naval blockade “remains in full force and effect.”

However, the US and Iran make conflicting claims about the Strait of Hormuz. Trump claimed that “the Hormuz Strait is open and operating” and that all water mines had been removed or detonated.

In contrast, Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the waterway would remain closed until the United States meets the conditions of the interim agreement, according to state media.

Separately, Iran and Oman are holding talks on the joint management of the Strait. A spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said mediators are waiting for the two countries to reach a bilateral agreement on Hormuz before returning to broader US-Iran negotiations.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, WTI holds a neutral near-term tone as price sits between key moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 suggests moderately constructive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive, hinting at a mild bullish bias in price pressure despite a relatively weak trend signaled by the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 17.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 50-day SMA around $78, with a deeper structural floor at the 200-day SMA near $76 if sellers regain control. On the topside, the first hurdle is the 100-day SMA at $86, and a clear daily close above this barrier would open the door for a stronger recovery phase, whereas repeated failure below it would keep WTI confined to a consolidative range above its medium- and long-term averages.