Goldman Sachs: If Middle East LNG exports do not improve, European TTF natural gas prices will need to exceed 100 euros per megawatt-hour to balance supply and demand.

(1) Goldman Sachs reiterated that if liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf fail to increase further, the current European TTF natural gas price of €65 per megawatt-hour is insufficient for Europe to effectively manage inventories during the winter period. (2) If LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be restricted, TTF prices need to rise further to curb Asian LNG demand through price mechanisms, thereby freeing up more cargoes to be redirected to Europe and helping it maintain inventory levels. (3) According to Goldman Sachs estimates, under the scenario where Middle Eastern energy exports only gradually recover by 2027, the December 2026-delivered TTF price may need to rise above €100 per megawatt-hour—110% higher than its base scenario (€50 per megawatt-hour)—in order to significantly suppress Asian demand and ensure Europe’s winter gas supply balance.