The conflict between the US and Iran severely impacts Qatar’s construction industry, with BMI projecting a decline of nearly 10% by 2026.

⑴ The BMI research report indicates that, due to the direct and indirect impacts of the US-Iran conflict, Qatar's construction industry is projected to shrink by approximately 10% in 2026—a sharp reversal from the pre-conflict forecast of over 3% growth, with a downward revision exceeding 12 percentage points. ⑵ The disruptive factors include large-scale project suspensions, supply chain constraints, rising construction material costs, and weak investor confidence. If the conflict is prolonged or the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to navigation, further pressure will be exerted on industry activity. ⑶ The decline in liquefied natural gas processing capacity may drag down government fiscal revenues, thereby limiting its infrastructure spending ability. Research agencies expect that if hostilities ease and the strait partially reopens to navigation, the growth rate could rebound to nearly 7% in 2027. ⑷ Overall, the short-term outlook for Qatar's construction industry is highly dependent on geopolitical developments. The pace of recovery is closely tied to the progress of reopening the strait and the government's fiscal capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor the trajectory of the conflict and the transmission effects of changes in energy revenue on project investment willingness going forward.