Eurozone: AfD surge raises policy uncertainty – ING

Carsten Brzeski of ING underscores that the AfD’s rise to Germany’s largest party in polls introduces significant uncertainty for Eurozone policy. He details the party’s past calls for Euro exit and monetary sovereignty, contrasts them with a newer, toned-down economic paper, and stresses that markets still lack clarity on what economic policy an AfD-led government would pursue at state or federal level.

AfD policies unsettle Euro outlook

"Underneath these three horse races sits a broader story, and one that markets and the business community should be paying more attention to than they are: the rise of the AfD to Germany’s largest political party, at least according to the polls."

"On economic policy, the AfD remains a grab bag, or a surprise bag. What it actually wants is unclear; contradictions are not rare and very little has been committed to paper."

"The 2025 federal manifesto, adopted unanimously ahead of the federal election and still the binding party programme, contains an entire chapter demanding Germany’s exit from the euro, a return to a national currency, gold repatriation and Target-2 “monetarisation”. It also called for higher pensions."

"Earlier this year, the AfD’s parliamentary group published a position paper on economic policy. Measured against the 2025 manifesto, the deletions are the headline."

"Even leaving the financing question aside, it remains completely unclear what kind of economic policy a state – or the country – would get with the AfD in government."