United Kingdom: Resilient growth versus fiscal strain – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that recent UK data, including Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real output per head and the August composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), point to resilient growth and improved consumer confidence. However, Foley stresses that high national debt, disappointing public borrowing figures and looming tax decisions constrain fiscal policy ahead of the October 28 budget.

Growth resilience and fiscal challenges

"There have been some better-than-expected UK economic data released in recent weeks."

"This means that the UK economy, along with that of the Eurozone, can be described as ‘resilient’ through Q2 and into the summer."

"This suggests that the economy started Q3 on a good footing which will deter fears that UK growth is set to taper off in the second half of the year."

"While stronger than expected UK growth may counter some of the concerns about the state of the Treasury’s coffers, it cannot detract much from the limitations of the fiscal rules, nor from the recent jitters in global government debt markets."

"While tax hikes could have growth limiting implications, they would at least protect the government’s fiscal rules and settle the nerves of the gilt market."