Bitcoin is approaching a critical technical level that could determine whether its recent rally marks the start of a genuine trend reversal, according to Verified Investing chief market strategist Gareth Soloway. The analyst laid out both the bullish and bearish case using chart structure and historical cycle comparisons.
Why This Isn’t a Confirmed Bull Market Yet
Despite the rally, Soloway was clear that Bitcoin has not technically confirmed a new bull market. The issue is that price has not yet broken above its prior pivot high near $82,865, with the recent rally topping out around $82,300. Until that level is cleared, Bitcoin remains in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, the technical definition of a downtrend, according to Soloway.
What’s Capping the Rally
Soloway identified two separate bear flag trend lines from earlier price action that, when extended forward, converge right around where the current rally has stalled. He described the alignment as coincidental but notable, calling it the technical reason the rally has been “capped” for now. He was careful to note this doesn’t rule out a breakout, and said recent price action has looked “very, very good” overall.
What a Higher High Would Signal
If Bitcoin breaks above the $82,865 pivot, Soloway said that alone wouldn’t guarantee a bull market, but it would represent the first higher high in the current pattern, opening the door to watching for higher lows on pullbacks.
He said a break higher wouldn’t preclude a pullback toward $68,000, but the broader structure would begin shifting from a downtrend toward a potential uptrend.
The Cycle Timing Question
Soloway also compared the length of the current market cycle to Bitcoin’s two prior major cycles. He said the 2017 peak-to-bottom cycle took roughly 360 trading bars (about a year), and the 2021 cycle length was nearly identical.
By contrast, he calculated the current cycle’s low arrived at just 266 bars, roughly 100 days shorter than the prior two cycles, based on his own chart analysis. He acknowledged this timing discrepancy could suggest Bitcoin’s bottom isn’t fully in yet, since it doesn’t match the historical pattern.
Case for Shorter Cycles
To explain the possibility of a shortened cycle, Soloway drew a comparison to gold, noting the gap between gold’s 1980 and 2011 bull market peaks was 31 years, while the gap between 2011 and 2026 was only 15 years, roughly half as long. He attributed this compression to rising M2 money supply and growing government debt levels, framing it as evidence that if an asset is functioning as a store of value akin to “digital gold,” its cycles should naturally shorten over time as currency debasement accelerates.
He suggested this same logic could apply to Bitcoin, potentially explaining why its current cycle arrived faster than the 2017 and 2021 cycles did. As of this analysis, Bitcoin’s next move hinges on whether it can clear the $82,865 pivot high in the near term.
