JPMorgan: Brent crude oil benchmark scenario for next year is $63, possibly reaching $87 in a conflict scenario

(1) The analyst team at JPMorgan presented a baseline scenario forecast in their research report, assuming global peace is maintained in 2027 and predicting that next year's average Brent crude oil price will be $63 per barrel. (2) Even in an extreme scenario of "permanent conflict" and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the bank expects next year's average Brent crude oil price to reach only $87 per barrel. (3) The research report points out that the duration of the conflict could last much longer than the baseline scenario assumes, but this does not mean that oil prices will necessarily surge from here, suggesting that the upside potential for prices in extreme scenarios is relatively limited.