U.S. crude oil production is expected to hit a record high in 2026, with major growth driven by the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico.

智通财经2026/09/12 02:51

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The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. crude oil production is expected to average 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, surpassing the record of 13.7 million barrels per day set in 2025.
In the first half of 2026, crude oil production is projected to average 13.7 million barrels per day, which is a 2% increase compared to the same period in 2025, or about 300,000 barrels per day more.
The main production increase is concentrated in the Permian Basin areas of Texas and New Mexico, as well as the Federal Gulf of Mexico.
The report forecasts that oil production in the Permian Basin will average 6.8 million barrels per day in 2026, up 3% from 2025, with the region’s output growth driven by rising oil prices.
In the Federal Gulf of Mexico, crude oil production in the first half of 2026 will be 200,000 barrels per day higher than in the first half of 2025, a 10% increase; full-year production for 2026 is expected to rise 3%, or about 100,000 barrels per day.
The increase in the Gulf’s first half output mainly comes from four new large-scale projects that began operations in the past year.
Amid high oil prices and rising supply risks, the continuous increase in U.S. production helps partially hedge against disruptions in Middle Eastern supply, but drilling economics and the pace of capital expenditures remain areas to watch going forward.

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U.S. crude oil production is expected to hit a record high in 2026, with major growth driven by the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico.

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