Hot news review: International Energy Agency lowers oil supply and demand forecast, full recovery of Middle East supply may be delayed until 2027

1. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its supply and demand forecast for the remainder of this year, projecting that global oil supply in 2026 will average 100.7 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 million barrels per day, and 1.3 million barrels per day lower than the previous Oil Market Report. A full recovery in supply from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries is not expected until 2027. 2. On the demand side, the IEA expects global oil demand in 2026 to drop by 2.5 million barrels per day, which is about 940,000 barrels per day higher than last month's report forecast. However, the pace of decline is expected to slow, from 5.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter to 3.4 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and further down to 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. 3. On the supply side, due to increased security risks, global oil production in August decreased by 1.6 million barrels per day month-on-month to 100.1 million barrels per day, with more than 10 million barrels per day of output in the Gulf region still offline. Global production is forecasted to rebound by 8 million barrels per day in 2027. 4. In terms of inventories, global observable crude oil inventories in August further declined by 95 million barrels, cumulatively falling to 507 million barrels since February, with an average daily decrease of 2.8 million barrels. Due to renewed attacks on Middle Eastern oil tankers, seaborne crude oil shipments dropped by 65 million barrels. Non-OECD countries' inventories decreased by 52 million barrels, with China experiencing the largest drop; meanwhile, OECD countries' inventories increased by 23 million barrels as increased commercial tank output offset a 19 million barrel decline in government stockpiles.