AI development slowdown combined with surging oil prices hit Japanese and Korean chip stocks first, SK Hynix falls more than 5%, SoftBank plunges 11%

AI giants have jointly called for slowing the development pace of frontier models, coupled with soaring oil prices reigniting inflation concerns, leading to Asian stock markets opening lower under pressure on Monday.

South Korea's KOSPI Index fell over 3%, SK Hynix dropped more than 5%, and Samsung Electronics lost over 3%. As the primary beneficiaries of the AI boom, Korean and Japanese chip stocks bore the brunt.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index opened 0.6% lower and subsequently extended losses to 2%, with SoftBank shares plunging 11%.

Meanwhile, Brent crude surged more than 3% to $107.99 per barrel. Saudi Arabia’s closure of a key oil pipeline, combined with news that Oman postponed a meeting with Iran and other countries originally scheduled for the 14th, suddenly heated up the energy market and further intensified concerns about the inflation outlook.

Nasdaq 100 index futures fell more than 1%, and S&P 500 index futures dropped 0.6%. Markets face multiple tests this week: the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, with swap market pricing currently showing over a 90% chance of a hike; both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will announce policy decisions in succession. The three major central bank decisions could reshape global monetary policy patterns for the rest of 2026 and beyond.

AI Giants Jointly Call for Slowdown, Chip Stocks Under Pressure

On Saturday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei announced that the company would introduce additional safety measures such as independent third-party assessments and called on the entire industry to proactively slow the development of the most advanced models. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman immediately endorsed the statement, and xAI's Elon Musk also commented, "Dario is right."

This rare consensus among three leading AI institutions has caused the market to question this core sector that has driven the stock market rally this year. Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, stated: "As investors assess the impact of top AI companies' major strategic shifts on valuations, the start of this week could be quite turbulent. Large Asian tech firms that support the supply chains of these big AI companies are likely to take the initial hit."

However, some market participants believe that the impact is more on a sentiment level. Kerry Craig, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said: "Until the necessity of a slowdown in development actually translates into capex guidance downgrades or delayed model releases, this is more likely a sentiment-driven factor rather than a valuation or earnings-driven factor."

On the corporate front, sources revealed that Anthropic has chosen Nasdaq as the potential listing venue for its record-breaking IPO. Sam Altman stated that OpenAI would not pursue IPO plans this year, as the company is currently focused on addressing AI safety issues.

Surge in Oil Prices Reignites Inflation Concerns, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise

Sudden shifts in the energy market have further exacerbated market woes. Saudi Arabia shut down a key oil pipeline following a drone attack, and a planned meeting between Iran and Gulf countries was postponed. Brent crude rose 2.8% to $107.55 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 2.5% to $102.51 per barrel—oil prices returning to above $100.

The oil price surge resonated with US inflation data released last Friday. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that for August, core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% over the previous month and 2.4% year-on-year; overall CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations.

The inflation data pushed up US Treasury yields. Two-year yields rose 4 basis points last Friday, and the 10-year yield approached the key 5% threshold, currently at 4.95%. Swap market pricing indicates the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday has exceeded 90%.

Martin Whetton, Head of Financial Markets Strategy at Westpac Banking Corp, said: "Rate hike expectations for the September FOMC meeting are already very clear, with a pricing probability of 90%. Following Friday’s CPI data release, US Treasury yields generally moved higher, and Asia’s fixed income markets will continue to be dominated by this today."

Analysts point out that the return of oil prices above $100 combined with renewed tensions in the Middle East has made global inflationary pressures difficult to alleviate. The breathing space policymakers had hoped for is increasingly elusive, which will also keep borrowing costs elevated for a longer period.