Bernstein: Continued Supply Shortages in the Middle East Could Push Brent Crude to $120-150

(1) Bernstein stated that due to Middle Eastern oil shipments remaining persistently below pre-war levels, the market is in a "long-term undersupplied" state, and Brent crude oil may rise to $120–$150 per barrel. In a report dated September 14, analysts indicated that the previous forecast of $90 per barrel for Brent crude in 2026 "has been overturned by reality," with risks tilted towards higher prices. (2) Currently, the combined oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal have dropped below 7 million barrels per day, compared to about 20 million barrels per day before the conflict. (3) In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could reach the statutory minimum of 252 million barrels by the end of September; although there is a theoretical minimum of 70 million barrels, meaning a further 180 million barrels could still be released from reserves, "we are approaching the operational limit of the strategic reserve."