Apple Pre-sale Tracker: iPhone 18 Pro Series Shows Weak Overseas Demand Signals, Duo Review Positive but Hardware Lags Behind

The Apple iPhone 18 Pro series opened for pre-sale just two days ago, and delivery lead time data has already sent a clear warning signal—demand in major overseas markets, excluding Mainland China and Hong Kong, is significantly weaker compared to the same period last year; meanwhile, the new foldable device Duo has received positive initial reviews, but its hardware specifications lag behind Android competitors, an issue that is difficult to ignore.

According to a tracking report released by Jefferies on September 14, since pre-orders began at 8:00 am US Eastern Time on September 12, iPhone 18 Pro Max delivery wait times in the four major markets—the US, UK, Germany, and Japan—have shortened by 5 to 11 days compared to the same period last year; wait times for the 18 Pro have also been significantly reduced in all tracked markets except Hong Kong, with US customers facing no waiting period at all. Analysts believe that, given the production pace is basically the same as the previous generation, shorter wait times are a reliable signal of weaker demand. Jefferies maintains an "Underperform" rating on Apple, with a target price of $263.66, implying around 21% downside from the current price of $332.27.

Mainland China and Hong Kong are the exceptions in this pre-sale—wait times for the 18 Pro Max in both regions are 4 days and 7 days longer than last year, respectively. However, Jefferies analysts also note that these two markets have historically seen considerable speculative buying activity, and whether the actual demand is sustainable will need to be verified by the trend in second-hand resale prices after the first batch ships on September 18.

The Jefferies team systematically tracked delivery wait times for six major markets—the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Mainland China, and Hong Kong—and added India as a new market this year, though year-on-year comparisons are still based on the original six markets.

Comparing the data as of noon Eastern Time on September 14 with the same period for the iPhone 17 series last year: wait times for the 18 Pro Max in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan are each 5 to 11 days shorter than for the 17 Pro Max; the 18 Pro requires no waiting in the US, and wait times in most other overseas markets have also shortened by 1 to 11 days.

Last year, the wait times for the iPhone 17 Pro Max and 17 Pro were significantly longer than the 16 series, which was ultimately proven to be a reliable leading indicator of strong sales. The reversal in this year’s data makes analysts cautious about the sales outlook for the 18 Pro series.

For the Indian market, wait times are only 2 to 3 days for the 18 Pro and about 12 days for the 18 Pro Max, both significantly shorter than in China, so it is difficult to judge this as a sign of strong demand.

Mainland China and Hong Kong are outliers in this pre-sale tracking. The data show that wait times for the 18 Pro Max in Mainland China and Hong Kong are both 24.5 days, higher than last year’s 19.8 days and 17.2 days, respectively.

However, Jefferies is cautious about these figures. The report notes that historically, there has been active speculative buying of new devices in these regions, so the lengthening of wait times may be due to channel hoarding rather than true end-user demand. Analysts believe that after shipments start on September 18, the trend of premiums on the secondary market will be a key indicator of real demand—if the resale premium narrows or even falls below the retail price, it will indicate that speculative demand has quickly faded after release.

The new Apple foldable device Duo will open for pre-orders on October 16. Initial reviews circulating online are generally positive, but highlights are mainly focused on the foldable screen experience of iOS—such as smooth switching between inner and outer screens, native split-screen functionality, application continuity, and dual-app multitasking.

Criticisms focus on hardware shortcomings: a limited number of floating windows, a maximum of two applications running simultaneously (while Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 supports three), and the lack of PC-like functions.

The comparison with flagship Android foldables is more intuitive.

According to Jefferies' comparative table, Duo starts at $1,999, weighs 254g, and has a folded thickness of 11.3mm; the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 weighs 201g, folded thickness is 9.7mm, and starts at $1,899; the Xiaomi 18 Fold weighs 219g, folded thickness is 10.68mm, and starts at roughly RMB 10,999.

On cameras, Duo is equipped with just a 48MP main and a 48MP ultra-wide lens, with no dedicated telephoto; Samsung also has dual cameras, while Xiaomi 18 Fold features a three-camera system including a 200MP Leica main sensor and a 50MP 3.5x optical zoom lens. For processors, Duo is equipped with Apple's self-developed A20 Pro (2nm process), while Samsung and Xiaomi both use 3nm chips.

Jefferies analysts point out that Apple has never relied on hardware specs to win market share, but at a price point above $2,000, hardware parameters may be an important factor for current iPhone users considering upgrading to Duo, and will also make it harder to convince high-end Android foldable users to switch. Analysts say their overall assessment of Duo has not changed since its announcement.

Jefferies maintains an "Underperform" rating on Apple stock, with a 12-month target price of $263.66, calculated from a DCF model through fiscal 2031, using a weighted average cost of capital of 7.8% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.3%. The target price corresponds to an estimated FY2026 P/E ratio of about 30.0x.