Is the bullish reversal of the yen a fresh start or a false breakout?

⑴ Position data reveals that, as of the week ending September 8, positions in the yen against the US dollar turned net long for the first time since February, with shorts suffering heavy losses as the USD/JPY fell from 160 to 152.89.⑵ If the USD/JPY falls below 152.89 this week, speculators might increase yen longs in line with the trend, targeting the key level of 150. Net long positions could climb to the highest level since 2025.⑶ Conversely, if the USD/JPY rises above 155—a level that has shifted from support to resistance—yen longs could be reduced, and positions might even turn net short once again.⑷ Looking back to February, net long yen positions were only short-lived; net shorts returned in March and even soared in July to a 25-month high of over 160,000 contracts, as only joint intervention from Japan and the US stabilized the yen.⑸ Whether the seedlings will grow into a big tree depends crucially on which threshold—152.89 or 155—gets broken first.