Gas prices soar and stockpiles run low: Europe faces a prelude to winter storage panic
智通财经2026/09/14 09:16- Benchmark natural gas prices in the Netherlands and UK surged to their highest levels since late 2022 during Monday’s trading, as diplomatic efforts in the Strait of Hormuz faltered and Europe heads into winter with inventories at multi-decade lows.
- The Dutch TTF near-month contract jumped over €4 in a single day, reaching a multi-year high at €84.5 per megawatt-hour; the UK front-month contract rose by more than 10 pence, both hitting records unseen since late December 2022.
- Iranian officials had previously stated they would attend a meeting with Gulf countries to discuss shipping arrangements in the strait, but late Sunday night, Oman announced the meeting was postponed, dampening hopes for a short-term diplomatic breakthrough.
- Some analysis firms pointed out that rising Middle Eastern risks, compounded by Europe’s maintenance season constraining Norwegian supply and LNG exports, are likely to drive bullish momentum throughout this week.
- According to estimates by the International Energy Agency, if the strait remains closed, global LNG supply this winter could decrease by more than 20 billion cubic meters, while the flexibility to increase pipeline gas supply remains very limited.
- The EU’s gas storage level sits about 20% below its five-year average—equivalent to nearly 17 billion cubic meters—sliding towards the lowest fill rate since 2013, and the thinner safety margin will intensify competition for flexible supplies.
- Last week, the Netherlands reduced its winter storage target to 64% to ease pressure on suppliers and stabilize prices, but the benchmark carbon market contract concurrently rose above €87.
- With both inventory buffers and geopolitical risks nearing their limits, this winter Europe may have to buy not only natural gas, but also time itself.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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