The oil valve is tightened, the $100 threshold is breached: self-reinforcement of supply panic
智通财经2026/09/14 09:16- Brent crude oil broke through $107 in one go on Monday, rising more than 3%. US crude also climbed above $103, with both benchmarks extending last week’s rally and regaining the $100 threshold.
- The market’s focus is firmly locked on the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two shipping lanes that carry a significant proportion of global crude oil transport.
- Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline was temporarily shut down due to a drone attack, and a merchant ship was attacked in the strait, with Iranian sources reporting casualties.
- Iran has tightened control over the strait, now requiring vessels to apply for permission before passage and is considering a mechanism to charge service fees. Reportedly, those not cooperating have already been targeted.
- The US has bombed parts of Iran’s coastline, directly challenging Tehran’s control over this strategic waterway, while Oman has delayed related talks between Iran and the Gulf states.
- Since the early August lows, Brent has accumulated a gain of over 30%. Previous attempts by the US and Iran to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement have failed, and conflict flared again in late August.
- Supply concerns have been further amplified by a sharp drop in Saudi output. Its average daily output in August fell to 6.2 million barrels, the lowest monthly level since 2026, representing a decline of about 23% from the previous month.
- The threat posed by Yemen’s Houthi forces to oil shipments along Saudi Arabia’s west coast has further exacerbated this production cut scenario.
- US energy stocks collectively strengthened in pre-market trading. ExxonMobil and Chevron both rose nearly 2%, while ConocoPhillips, EOG and other exploration companies gained between 1.6% and 2.9%. Oilfield services and refining stocks also rose in tandem.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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