U.S. market in focus: long-term bonds and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions proceed in parallel

(1) The ADP National Employment Estimate will be released at 20:15 Beijing time. (2) The New York State Manufacturing Index will be released at 20:30 Beijing time, providing early clues about factory activity in September. (3) The U.S. 6-week Treasury Bill auction is scheduled for 23:30 Beijing time. (4) The reissue auction for the 20-year Treasury Bond will begin at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time the following day, with a scale of about $1.3 billion, making it the most critical fixed time test of the day. (5) Against the backdrop of persistently high long-term yields, the strength or weakness of demand in this auction will noticeably impact the market; weak demand may push yields higher and suppress stocks, while strong demand would have the opposite effect. (6) The American Petroleum Institute inventory data will be released at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time the following day. With crude prices remaining high, another sharp decrease in inventories could intensify inflation concerns. (7) The two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting kicks off on this day, with no major official speeches scheduled for the first day. (8) The rate decision, dot plot, and Powell’s press conference are all scheduled for the following day; the market is focusing on the 2-year and 10-year yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed rate pricing.