How do U.S. stocks perform during midterm election cycles? UBS: Historically strong returns, but significant volatility in September and October

How do U.S. stocks perform during midterm election cycles? UBS: Historically strong returns, but significant volatility in September and October

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东方财富2026/09/21 00:56

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As the U.S. midterm elections approach, UBS recently released a research report stating that, based on historical trends, the S&P 500 Index typically experiences increased volatility in September and October leading up to the midterm elections. In the months following the midterms, it often rises, followed by even stronger performance from the end of the year to the following spring. Midterm election years have delivered impressive historical returns. UBS strategists noted that since 1950, during midterm election years, the S&P 500 Index has risen by an average of 14.5% from the end of August to the end of March in the following year, with a median return of 16.4%.

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